The Millrose Games: The Crown Jewel of the Indoor Track Season

The Millrose Games is upon us yet again and as expected Meet Director Ray Flynn has put together world class fields. Having seen the athletes assembled for this marquee event has my mind swirling as to how these races are going to play out. The following is a breakdown of the men's and women's fields for the 3000.

Frankfurt Kurnit Women's 3000m

To quote OAC coach Dathan Ritzenhein, "You can run 8:20, I know it". This was in reference to athlete, Alicia Monson as she completed a 1600 in 4:26 as part of a workout a few weeks ago. She then went on to race a mile that following Saturday at the Dr. Sander Invitational in 4:23.55 leading wire to wire. Monson is without a doubt one of the best, if not THE best female distance athlete representing the United States currenly on the track, but running 8:20 is a tall order. Just for frame of reference Monson's current 3000m personal best is 8:26.81, this coming at the end of an outdoor track season where one's fitness is at its pinnacle. Ritzenhien believes she can lop off 7 seconds, a mere 6 months after setting her outdoor PR (including a post season break), in the middle of the indoor season, when the big goal is to rip a 10k on March 4th at The Ten? Well slap me around and call me Suzy, this I've got to see!

Not to be trifled with, there is another titan in the race, her name, Elise Cranny. Cranny, of the Bowerman Track Club, has quite the resume herself. She's run 3:59.06 for 1500, 8:29.95 for 3k, 14:33.17 for 5k and 30:14.66 for 10k. As far as personal bests are concerned she's got Monson beat on the extremes of that spectrum. Her one handicap coming into this race is that she has yet to race this season, but experience has shown us time and time again Jerry Schumacher doesn't have his athletes step to the line unless they are ready to rip. The way I see this race playing out is Monson and Cranny waging an epic battle for the win, with Monson edging out Cranny, setting the American indoor record at 8:22 (current record is held by Karissa Schweizer at 8:25.70).

The race within the race will be intriguing as well. You've got the newly minted women's collegiate indoor mile record holder, Katelyn Tuohy, chasing another collegiate record (Karissa Schweizer's 8:41.60), as well as Courtney Wayment and Whittni Orton of Taylor Made Elite wanting to show that they're the real deal. Both Orton and Tuohy were part of the mile that Monson won a couple of weeks back, holding their own against Monson running 4:23.97 and 4:24.26, respectively. Now you ask, why aren't I placing these ladies in the same tier as Monson and Crannny? Well, my good Watson, let me explain. While these ladies are phenomenal athletes in their own right, they haven't quite developed the staying power of Monson and Cranny. While these ladies are probably capable of running a sub 15 minute 5k, the likes of Monson and Cranny will be trying to run close to, if not break 30 minutes for 10k this upcoming outdoor season. I predict Tuohy will break the women's collegiate record in the 3k with all three women running between 8:30-8:37.

Dr. Sander Men's 3000m

The men's 3000m race is headlined by Woody Kincaid and Joe Klecker, both recently breaking 13 minutes for 5k at the Boston University Terrier Classic running 12:51.61 and 12:54.99, respectively. Klecker is teammates with Yared Nuguse who broke the men's American indoor 3000m record at that same meet, running 7:28.24. Between breaking 13 minutes for 5k for the first time and being training partners with the guy who just set the American indoor 3k record I think it would suffice to say that Klecker is coming into this meet with a load of confidence. Provided Klecker recovered well from his heroic 5k effort and that the pace is kept honest, I believe that his fitness indicates he's ready take a crack at the 7:30 barrier as well.

Now the one man who could rain on his parade is Woody Kincaid, which is exactly what he did at BU two weeks ago. A late entry into the meet, Kincaid emerged from Flagstaff without much fanfare. Little did the track world know that he was about to put his competitors on notice. Kincaid rode the OAC train for most of the race and just as one thought that Klecker had broke his spirit he summoned his signature kick and closed the last 200 in 26 point, to not only beat Klecker but to set the men's American indoor 5000m record as well. I believe the only way to beat Kincaid is to ratchet down the pace from a LONG way out. If one leaves it to the last 200 he is going to blow your doors off. Does Klecker keep it going hoping he can gap Kincaid enough before the bell rings? Does someone other than Klecker keep things honest? Or does it become a tactical affair, where the athletes are leaving their fate up to chance? What I do know is this... If Kincaid is allowed to be towed along like he was at BU, Yared Nuguse's men's American indoor 3k record won't be long for this world.

Although the main focus of this men's preview has been on Klecker and Kincaid there are definitely other storylines to take into consideration here. For instance, Kincaid has been training with "a collection of individuals" coached by Mike Smith of NAU. Given Kincaid's American record setting run and Drew Bosley's men's collegiate 3000m record, one might assume that others in this cohort are fit as well... Enter Luis Grijalva and Nico Young. Grijlva finished 4th at the World Championships this past summer in the 5k and has run 3:53 for the mile this indoor season. Young is the NCAA cross country runner-up and sports a 5k personal best of 13:11. I anticipate both men mixing it up in the lead pack for the majority of the race. Will Young break his teammate's collegiate record? My guess is he wouldn't be running this race if he didn't have a shot. Can Grijalva take down the likes of Klecker and Kincaid? Time will tell... What's the record for most men under 7:40 in one race on American soil?